Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $148,950$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,689.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(141,689.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,734$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,318.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,318.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,389$ on 2020-05-30

Turkey

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $163,103$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,419.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(155,419.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,515$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(793 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,386.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,386.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,604$ on 2020-05-30

Kuwait

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,192$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(88.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,344.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,344.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $205$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(285.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,831$ on 2020-05-30

Israel

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,012$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,584.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,584.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $284$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(64.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(275.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,917$ on 2020-05-30

United Arab Emirates

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,896$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,918.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 83.2)}}\) (asimptote \(43,918.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $262$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{269.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(269.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,088$ on 2020-05-30

Cyprus

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $944$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{909.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(909.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(7.34 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $137$ on 2020-05-30

Saudi Arabia

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,384$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,200.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(113,200.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $480$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(40 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{705.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(705.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,021$ on 2020-05-30

Qatar

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,262$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(538 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,008.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 84.9)}}\) (asimptote \(88,008.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.69 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,387$ on 2020-05-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Taiwan* recovered 96%
Japan recovered 87%
Israel recovered 80%
Turkey recovered 61%
Georgia recovered 60%
Singapore recovered 35%
Saudi Arabia recovered 16%

Taiwan*

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $442$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(126 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-30

Active

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14$ on 2020-05-30

Japan

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,716$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,600.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,600.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $894$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(62.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{948.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(948.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,555$ on 2020-05-30

Georgia

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $757$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(96.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{758.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(758.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $145$ on 2020-05-30

Singapore

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,366$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(337 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,660.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,660.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(25.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,616$ on 2020-05-30