Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $148,950$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,689.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(141,689.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,734$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,318.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,318.9\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,389$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $163,103$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,419.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(155,419.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,515$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(793 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,386.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,386.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,604$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,192$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(88.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,344.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,344.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $205$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(285.9\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,831$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,012$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,584.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,584.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $284$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(64.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(275.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,917$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,896$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(617 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,918.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 83.2)}}\) (asimptote \(43,918.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $262$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{269.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(269.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,088$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $944$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{909.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(909.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(7.34 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16.9\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $137$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,384$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,200.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(113,200.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $480$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(40 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{705.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(705.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,021$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,262$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(538 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,008.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 84.9)}}\) (asimptote \(88,008.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.69 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,387$ on 2020-05-30
